The new record of drought and warmth in the Amazon in 2023 related to regional and global climatic features.

In 2023 Amazonia experienced both historical drought and warm conditions. On October 26th 2023 the water levels at the port of Manaus reached its lowest record since 1902 (12.70 m). In this region, October monthly maximum and minimum temperature anomalies also surpassed previous record values registered in 2015 (+ 3 °C above the normal considering the 1981-2020 average). Here we show that this historical dry and warm situation in Amazonia is associated with two main atmospheric mechanisms: (i) the November 2022-February 2023 southern anomaly of vertical integrated moisture flux (VIMF), related to VIMF divergence and extreme rainfall deficit over southwestern Amazonia, and (ii) the June-August 2023 downward motion over northern Amazonia related to extreme rainfall deficit and warm conditions over this region. Anomalies of both atmospheric mechanisms reached record values during this event. The first mechanism is significantly correlated to negative sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies in the equatorial Pacific (November-February La Niña events). The second mechanism is significantly correlated to positive SST anomalies in the equatorial Pacific, related to the impacts of June-September El Niño on the Walker Circulation. While previous extreme droughts were linked to El Niño (warmer North Tropical Atlantic SST) during the austral summer (winter and spring), the transition from La Niña 2022-23 to El Niño 2023 appears to be a key climatic driver in this record-breaking dry and warm situation, combined to a widespread anomalous warming over the worldwide ocean.

One sixth of Amazonian tree diversity is dependent on river floodplains.

Amazonia's floodplain system is the largest and most biodiverse on Earth. Although forests are crucial to the ecological integrity of floodplains, our understanding of their species composition and how this may differ from surrounding forest types is still far too limited, particularly as changing inundation regimes begin to reshape floodplain tree communities and the critical ecosystem functions they underpin. Here we address this gap by taking a spatially explicit look at Amazonia-wide patterns of tree-species turnover and ecological specialization of the region's floodplain forests. We show that the majority of Amazonian tree species can inhabit floodplains, and about a sixth of Amazonian tree diversity is ecologically specialized on floodplains. The degree of specialization in floodplain communities is driven by regional flood patterns, with the most compositionally differentiated floodplain forests located centrally within the fluvial network and contingent on the most extraordinary flood magnitudes regionally. Our results provide a spatially explicit view of ecological specialization of floodplain forest communities and expose the need for whole-basin hydrological integrity to protect the Amazon's tree diversity and its function.

Evaluation of the management potential of timber resources in clearwater floodplain forests in the Amazon using growth models.

The Amazonian clearwater igapós are poorly studied floodplain ecosystems that are mainly covered by forests and are undergoing massive threats due to changes in land use and climate. Their hydrochemical characteristics and edaphic conditions fall between those of the eutrophic várzea floodplains on whitewater rivers and those of the oligotrophic igapós on blackwater rivers. Previous studies have indicated the management potential of timber species in the highly dynamic várzea floodplains due to the fast tree growth and high forest productivity. Timber resource management, however, is not recommended for the blackwater ecosystem because of its slow dynamics and high vulnerability to disturbances. For clearwater igapós, information on the potential for sustainable management of timber resources is lacking. In this study, we modeled the growth in diameter, height, and volume to derive species-specific minimum logging diameters (MLD) and felling cycles (FC) for eight merchantable species in the clearwater igapós of the Branco and Tapajós rivers in the northern and southern Amazon Basin, respectively. Diameter growth was modeled by analyzing the tree rings that are annually formed in the Amazonian floodplains as a consequence of the regular and predicable long-term flooding. Growth modeling followed the guidelines of the Growth-Oriented Logging (GOL) concept, with the adjustment of diameter growth improved by applying nonlinear mixed-effects regression. MLDs varied from 36 to 90 cm and FCs ranged from 6 to 21 years, which diverges from the standards of Brazilian logging regulations (MLD: 50 cm; FC: 25-35 years). This indicates the potential for timber resource management, which should be tested and introduced at small scales, integrated in protected areas to stepwise promote the sustainable management of these natural resources by traditional communities to increase their income and the conservation of this ecosystem.

Mapping density, diversity and species-richness of the Amazon tree flora.

Using 2.046 botanically-inventoried tree plots across the largest tropical forest on Earth, we mapped tree species-diversity and tree species-richness at 0.1-degree resolution, and investigated drivers for diversity and richness. Using only location, stratified by forest type, as predictor, our spatial model, to the best of our knowledge, provides the most accurate map of tree diversity in Amazonia to date, explaining approximately 70% of the tree diversity and species-richness. Large soil-forest combinations determine a significant percentage of the variation in tree species-richness and tree alpha-diversity in Amazonian forest-plots. We suggest that the size and fragmentation of these systems drive their large-scale diversity patterns and hence local diversity. A model not using location but cumulative water deficit, tree density, and temperature seasonality explains 47% of the tree species-richness in the terra-firme forest in Amazonia. Over large areas across Amazonia, residuals of this relationship are small and poorly spatially structured, suggesting that much of the residual variation may be local. The Guyana Shield area has consistently negative residuals, showing that this area has lower tree species-richness than expected by our models. We provide extensive plot meta-data, including tree density, tree alpha-diversity and tree species-richness results and gridded maps at 0.1-degree resolution.

Effects of Amazonian flying rivers on frog biodiversity and populations in the Atlantic rainforest.

Given the speed at which humans are changing the climate, species with high degrees of endemism may not have time to avoid extinction through adaptation. We investigated through teleconnection analysis the origin of rainfall that determines the phylogenetic diversity of rainforest frogs and the effects of microclimate differences in shaping the morphological traits of isolated populations (which contribute to greater phylogenetic diversity and speciation). We also investigated through teleconnection analysis how deforestation in Amazonia can affect ecosystem services that are fundamental to maintaining the climate of the Atlantic rainforest biodiversity hotspot. Seasonal winds known as flying rivers carry water vapor from Amazonia to the Atlantic Forest, and the breaking of this ecosystem service could lead Atlantic Forest species to population decline and extinction in the short term. Our results suggest that the selection of morphological traits that shape Atlantic Forest frog diversity and their population dynamics are influenced by the Amazonian flying rivers. Our results also suggest that the increases of temperature anomalies in the Atlantic Ocean due to global warming and in the Amazon forest due to deforestation are already breaking this cycle and threaten the biodiversity of the Atlantic Forest hotspot.

Efectos de los ríos voladores de la Amazonía sobre la diversidad y las poblaciones de ranas en la Mata Atlántica Resumen Con la velocidad a la que la humanidad está alterando el clima, puede que las especies con un nivel elevado de endemismo no cuenten con tiempo suficiente para adaptarse y evitar la extinción. Usamos un análisis de teleconexión para investigar el origen de las precipitaciones que determinan la diversidad filogenética de las ranas selváticas y los efectos de las diferencias microclimáticas sobre la determinación de las características morfológicas de las poblaciones aisladas, las cuales contribuyen a una mayor especiación y diversidad filogenética. También utilizamos este análisis para investigar cómo la deforestación en la Amazonía puede afectar los servicios ambientales que son fundamentales para mantener el punto caliente de biodiversidad que es la Mata Atlántica. Los ríos voladores son vientos estacionales que transportan vapor de agua desde la Amazonía hasta la Mata Atlántica; la interrupción de este servicio ambiental podría derivar en la declinación poblacional y la extinción a corto plazo de las especies en este ecosistema. Nuestros resultados sugieren que los ríos voladores de la Amazonía influyen sobre la selección de las características morfológicas que determinan la diversidad de ranas y sus dinámicas poblacionales en la Mata Atlántica. Nuestros resultados también sugieren que el incremento de anomalías térmicas en el Océano Atlántico, causadas por el calentamiento global, y en la Amazonía, causadas por la deforestación, ya están interrumpiendo este ciclo y son una amenaza para la biodiversidad del punto caliente que es la Mata Atlántica.

Tree-ring oxygen isotopes record a decrease in Amazon dry season rainfall over the past 40 years.

Extant climate observations suggest the dry season over large parts of the Amazon Basin has become longer and drier over recent decades. However, such possible intensification of the Amazon dry season and its underlying causes are still a matter of debate. Here we used oxygen isotope ratios in tree rings (δ18OTR) from six floodplain trees from the western Amazon to assess changes in past climate. Our analysis shows that δ18OTR of these trees is negatively related to inter-annual variability of precipitation during the dry season over large parts of the Amazon Basin, consistent with a Rayleigh rainout model. Furthermore δ18OTR increases by approximately 2‰ over the last four decades (~ 1970-2014) providing evidence of an Amazon drying trend independent from satellite and in situ rainfall observations. Using a Rayleigh rainout framework, we estimate basin-wide dry season rainfall to have decreased by up to 30%. The δ18OTR record further suggests such drying trend may not be unprecedented over the past 80 years. Analysis of δ18OTR with sea surface temperatures indicates a strong role of a warming Tropical North Atlantic Ocean in driving this long-term increase in δ18OTR and decrease in dry season rainfall. Supplementary Information: The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s00382-021-06046-7.

Global tree-ring analysis reveals rapid decrease in tropical tree longevity with temperature.

Forests are the largest terrestrial biomass pool, with over half of this biomass stored in the highly productive tropical lowland forests. The future evolution of forest biomass depends critically on the response of tree longevity and growth rates to future climate. We present an analysis of the variation in tree longevity and growth rate using tree-ring data of 3,343 populations and 438 tree species and assess how climate controls growth and tree longevity across world biomes. Tropical trees grow, on average, two times faster compared to trees from temperate and boreal biomes and live significantly shorter, on average (186 ± 138 y compared to 322 ± 201 y outside the tropics). At the global scale, growth rates and longevity covary strongly with temperature. Within the warm tropical lowlands, where broadleaf species dominate the vegetation, we find consistent decreases in tree longevity with increasing aridity, as well as a pronounced reduction in longevity above mean annual temperatures of 25.4 °C. These independent effects of temperature and water availability on tree longevity in the tropics are consistent with theoretical predictions of increases in evaporative demands at the leaf level under a warmer and drier climate and could explain observed increases in tree mortality in tropical forests, including the Amazon, and shifts in forest composition in western Africa. Our results suggest that conditions supporting only lower tree longevity in the tropical lowlands are likely to expand under future drier and especially warmer climates.

Biased-corrected richness estimates for the Amazonian tree flora.

Amazonian forests are extraordinarily diverse, but the estimated species richness is very much debated. Here, we apply an ensemble of parametric estimators and a novel technique that includes conspecific spatial aggregation to an extended database of forest plots with up-to-date taxonomy. We show that the species abundance distribution of Amazonia is best approximated by a logseries with aggregated individuals, where aggregation increases with rarity. By averaging several methods to estimate total richness, we confirm that over 15,000 tree species are expected to occur in Amazonia. We also show that using ten times the number of plots would result in an increase to just ~50% of those 15,000 estimated species. To get a more complete sample of all tree species, rigorous field campaigns may be needed but the number of trees in Amazonia will remain an estimate for years to come.

Flood-pulse disturbances as a threat for long-living Amazonian trees.

The long-lived tree species Eschweilera tenuifolia (O. Berg) Miers is characteristic of oligotrophic Amazonian black-water floodplain forests (igapó), seasonally inundated up to 10 months per year, often forming monodominant stands. We investigated E. tenuifolia' growth and mortality patterns in undisturbed (Jaú National Park - JNP) and disturbed igapós (Uatumã Sustainable Development Reserve - USDR, downstream of the Balbina hydroelectric dam). We analysed age-diameter relationships, basal area increment (BAI) through 5-cm diameter classes, growth changes and growth ratios preceding death, BAI clustering, BAI ratio, and dated the individual year of death (14 C). Growth and mortality patterns were then related to climatic or anthropogenic disturbances. Results were similar for both populations for estimated maximum ages (JNP, 466 yr; USDR, 498 yr, except for one USDR tree with an estimated age of 820 yr) and slightly different for mean diameter increment (JNP: 2.04 mm; USDR: 2.28 mm). Living trees from JNP showed altered growth post-1975 and sparse tree mortality occurred at various times, possibly induced by extreme hydroclimatic events. In contrast with the JNP, abrupt growth changes and massive mortality occurred in the USDR after the dam construction began (1983). Even more than 30 yr after dam construction, flood-pulse alteration continues to affect both growth and mortality of E. tenuifolia. Besides its vulnerability to anthropogenic disturbances, this species is also susceptible to long-lasting dry and wet periods induced by climatic events, the combination of both processes may cause its local and regional extinction.

Tropical Trees as Time Capsules of Anthropogenic Activity.

After the ice caps, tropical forests are globally the most threatened terrestrial environments. Modern trees are not just witnesses to growing contemporary threats but also legacies of past human activity. Here, we review the use of dendrochronology, radiocarbon analysis, stable isotope analysis, and DNA analysis to examine ancient tree management. These methods exploit the fact that living trees record information on environmental and anthropogenic selective forces during their own and past generations of growth, making trees living archaeological 'sites'. The applicability of these methods across prehistoric, historic, and industrial periods means they have the potential to detect evolving anthropogenic threats and can be used to set conservation priorities in rapidly vanishing environments.

Rarity of monodominance in hyperdiverse Amazonian forests.

Tropical forests are known for their high diversity. Yet, forest patches do occur in the tropics where a single tree species is dominant. Such "monodominant" forests are known from all of the main tropical regions. For Amazonia, we sampled the occurrence of monodominance in a massive, basin-wide database of forest-inventory plots from the Amazon Tree Diversity Network (ATDN). Utilizing a simple defining metric of at least half of the trees ≥ 10 cm diameter belonging to one species, we found only a few occurrences of monodominance in Amazonia, and the phenomenon was not significantly linked to previously hypothesized life history traits such wood density, seed mass, ectomycorrhizal associations, or Rhizobium nodulation. In our analysis, coppicing (the formation of sprouts at the base of the tree or on roots) was the only trait significantly linked to monodominance. While at specific locales coppicing or ectomycorrhizal associations may confer a considerable advantage to a tree species and lead to its monodominance, very few species have these traits. Mining of the ATDN dataset suggests that monodominance is quite rare in Amazonia, and may be linked primarily to edaphic factors.

Measures for sustainable forest management in the tropics - A tree-ring based case study on tree growth and forest dynamics in a Central Amazonian lowland moist forest.

The conservation of tropical forests is recognized as one of the most important challenges for forestry, ecology and politics. Besides strict protection, the sustainable management of natural forests should be enhanced as a key part of the foundation for the maintenance of tropical rain forest ecosystems. Due to methodological reasons it has been complicated to attain reliable growth data to plan sustainable felling cycles and rotation periods. Tree ring analyses enable the estimation of growth rates over the entire life span of trees and their age as well as giving hints from forest dynamics in previous centuries. For tree ring analysis, stem disk samples were taken from three important commercial tree species (Cariniana micrantha, Caryocar villosum and Manilkara huberi) in the upland (terra firme) forests of the Precious Woods Amazon logging company near Itacoatiara, Brazil. Based on radiocarbon estimates of individual growth zones, the annual nature of tree rings was proven for the three species. Tree rings were measured and the results used together with height estimates to model diameter, height and volume growth. The age of the eldest tree, a C. micrantha, was 585 yrs with 165 cm in diameter. The species' diameter increments range from 0.20±0.12 cm yr-1 to 0.29±0.08 cm yr-1. At first sight, this is considerably lower than increments reported from other Amazonian or African timber species. Considering the respective wood density there is no significant difference in growth performance of dominant timber species across continents. The interpretation of lifetime tree ring curves indicate differences in shadow tolerance among species, the persistence of individuals in the understory for up to 150 years and natural stand dynamics without major disturbances. Management criteria should be adapted for the measured growth rates as they differed considerably from the Brazilian standards fixed by laws (felling cycle of 25-35 years and a common minimum logging diameter of 50 cm). Felling cycles should be increased to 32-51 years and minimum logging diameters to 63-123 cm depending on the species.

Amazonian trees show increased edge effects due to Atlantic Ocean warming and northward displacement of the Intertropical Convergence Zone since 1980.

Recent investigations indicate a warming of Atlantic Ocean surface waters since 1980, probably influenced by anthropic actions, inducing rainfall intensification mainly during the rainy season and slight reductions during the dry season in the Amazon. Under these climate changes, trees in upland forests (terra firme) could benefit from the intensification of the hydrological cycle and could also be affected by the reduction of precipitation during the dry season. Results of dendrochronological analyses, spatial correlations and structural equation models, showed that Scleronema micranthum (Ducke) Ducke (Malvaceae) trees exposed in fragmented areas and to edge effects in Central Amazonian terra firme forest were more sensitive to the increase in the Atlantic Ocean surface temperature and consequent northward displacement of the Intertropical Convergence Zone, mainly during the dry season. Therefore, we proved that in altered and potentially more stressful environments such as edges of fragmented forests, recent anthropogenic climatic changes are exerting pressure on tree growth dynamics, inducing alterations in their performance and, consequently, in essential processes related to ecosystem services. Changes that could affect human well-being, highlighting the need for strategies that reduce edge areas expansion in Amazon forests and anthropic climate changes of the Anthropocene.

Massive tree mortality from flood pulse disturbances in Amazonian floodplain forests: The collateral effects of hydropower production.

Large dams built for hydroelectric power generation alter the hydrology of rivers, attenuating the flood pulse downstream of the dam and impacting riparian and floodplain ecosystems. The present work mapped black-water floodplain forests (igapó) downstream of the Balbina Reservoir, which was created between 1983 and 1987 by damming the Uatumã River in the Central Amazon basin. We apply remote sensing methods to detect tree mortality resulting from hydrological changes, based on analysis of 56 ALOS/PALSAR synthetic aperture radar images acquired at different flood levels between 2006 and 2011. Our application of object-based image analysis (OBIA) methods and the random forests supervised classification algorithm yielded an overall accuracy of 87.2%. A total of 9800 km2 of igapó forests were mapped along the entire river downstream of the dam, but forest mortality was only observed below the first 49 km downstream, after the Morena rapids, along an 80-km river stretch. In total, 12% of the floodplain forest died within this stretch. We also detected that 29% of the remaining living igapó forest may be presently undergoing mortality. Furthermore, this large loss does not include the entirety of lost igapó forests downstream of the dam; areas which are now above current maximum flooding heights are no longer floodable and do not show on our mapping but will likely transition over time to upland forest species composition and dynamics, also characteristic of igapó loss. Our results show that floodplain forests are extremely sensitive to long-term downstream hydrological changes and disturbances resulting from the disruption of the natural flood pulse. Brazilian hydropower regulations should require that Amazon dam operations ensure the simulation of the natural flood-pulse, despite losses in energy production, to preserve the integrity of floodplain forest ecosystems and to mitigate impacts for the riverine populations.

Growth rings of Brazil nut trees (Bertholletia excelsa) as a living record of historical human disturbance in Central Amazonia.

The Brazil nut tree (Bertholletia excelsa) is an iconic and economically valuable species that dominates vast swathes of the Amazon Basin. This species seems to have been an important part of human subsistence strategies in the region from at least the Early Holocene, and its current distribution may be a legacy of past human settlement. Because B. excelsa is a long-lived pioneer tree it requires natural or human disturbances to increase light availability in the understory for a successful establishment. However, it remains unclear how the long-term population dynamics of this species have been shaped by pre-colonial and post-colonial human practices. Here, we use tree-ring analyses to look at changes in growing conditions over the past 400 years in a Brazil nut tree population in Central Amazonia. We identify changes in tree recruitment and growth rates associated not only with regional climatic variability, but also major political and socio-economic activities recorded by historical documents in the vicinity of Manaus. We demonstrate that the expansion of a post-colonial political center (Manaus) from the middle of the 18th century onwards coincided with a reduction in recruitment of B. excelsa. We argue that this hiatus suggests the interruption of indigenous management practices, probably due to the collapse of pre-Columbian societies. A second recruitment pulse, and unprecedented cycles of growth release and suppression, aligns with a shift to modern exploitation of the forest into the 20th century. Our findings shed light on how past histories of human-forest interactions can be revealed by the growth rings of trees in Amazonia. Future interdisciplinary analysis of these trees should enable more detailed investigation of how human forest management has changed in this part of the world, through pre-colonial, colonial, and industrial periods of human activity, with potential implications for conservation.

Contrasting controls on tree ring isotope variation for Amazon floodplain and terra firme trees.

Isotopes in tropical trees rings can improve our understanding of tree responses to climate. We assessed how climate and growing conditions affect tree-ring oxygen and carbon isotopes (δ18OTR and δ13CTR) in four Amazon trees. We analysed within-ring isotope variation for two terra firme (non-flooded) and two floodplain trees growing at sites with varying seasonality. We find distinct intra-annual patterns of δ18OTR and δ13CTR driven mostly by seasonal variation in weather and source water δ18O. Seasonal variation in isotopes was lowest for the tree growing under the wettest conditions. Tree ring cellulose isotope models based on existing theory reproduced well observed within-ring variation with possible contributions of both stomatal and mesophyll conductance to variation in δ13CTR. Climate analysis reveal that terra firme δ18OTR signals were related to basin-wide precipitation, indicating a source water δ18O influence, while floodplain trees recorded leaf enrichment effects related to local climate. Thus, intrinsically different processes (source water vs leaf enrichment) affect δ18OTR in the two different species analysed. These differences are likely a result of both species-specific traits and of the contrasting growing conditions in the floodplains and terra firme environments. Simultaneous analysis of δ13CTR and δ18OTR supports this interpretation as it shows strongly similar intra-annual patterns for both isotopes in the floodplain trees arising from a common control by leaf stomatal conductance, while terra firme trees showed less covariation between the two isotopes. Our results are interesting from a plant physiological perspective and have implications for climate reconstructions as trees record intrinsically different processes.

Dendroecology of Macrolobium acaciifolium (Fabaceae) in Central Amazonian floodplain forests / Dendroecologia de Macrolobium acaciifolium (Fabaceae) em florestas alagáveis da Amazônia central

The forest dynamics in the Amazonian floodplains is strongly triggered by the flood pulse. Trees respond to unfavorable growth conditions during the flood period by cambial dormancy, which results in the formation of annual growth rings. We determined tree age and compared the mean annual rates of increase in the diameter of Macrolobium acaciifolium with hydrological and climatic factors in three regions of central Amazonian floodplain forest. A wood sample was obtained from each tree using an increment borer. Ring growth was assessed by marginal parenchyma bands to determine tree age and the mean diameter increment. Ring widths were indexed to construct cross-dating chronologies and correlated with climatic and hydrological variables. The analyses demonstrate that the mean annual diameter increment did not differ between the three study sites. The chronologies correlated significantly with the terrestrial phase. There was no significant difference in the ring-width index between El Niño years and other years, and between La Niña and other years. These results show that the hydrological variables can be considered crucial to the rates of tree growth and diameter increment in floodplains, and El Niño signals were not detected in the tree-ring chronologies.

A dinâmica das florestas alagáveis da Amazônia é fortemente influenciada pelo pulso anual de inundação. As árvores respondem às condições de crescimento desfavoráveis durante o período de inundação através da dormência cambial, resultando na formação de anéis de crescimento anuais. Neste estudo, determinamos a idade das árvores e comparamos as taxas anuais médias de incremento em diâmetro de Macrolobium acaciifolium com fatores hidrológicos e climáticos em três regiões de florestas alagáveis na Amazônia central. Para cada árvore, uma amostra de madeira foi obtida usando uma broca dendrocronológica. O crescimento do anel foi avaliado por bandas de parênquima marginal, para determinar a idade da árvore e o incremento médio em diâmetro. As séries de anéis foram indexadas, para construir cronologias, e correlacionadas com variáveis climáticas e hidrológicas. Nossas análises demonstraram que o incremento anual médio em diâmetro não diferiu entre os três locais de estudo. As cronologias correlacionaram-se significativamente com a fase terrestre. Não houve diferença significativa no índice de largura dos anéis entre os anos de El Niño e outros anos, e entre os anos de La Niña e outros anos. Estes resultados mostraram que as variáveis hidrológicas podem ser consideradas cruciais para as taxas de crescimento e de incremento em diâmetro das árvores em florestas alagáveis, e que não foram detectados sinais de El Niño nas cronologias das árvores analisadas.

Recent intensification of Amazon flooding extremes driven by strengthened Walker circulation.

The Amazon basin is the largest watershed on Earth. Although the variability of the Amazon hydrological cycle has been increasing since the late 1990s, its underlying causes have remained elusive. We use water levels in the Amazon River to quantify changes in extreme events and then analyze their cause. Despite continuing research emphasis on droughts, the largest change over recent decades is a marked increase in very severe floods. Increased flooding is linked to a strengthening of the Walker circulation, resulting from strong tropical Atlantic warming and tropical Pacific cooling. Atlantic warming due to combined anthropogenic and natural factors has contributed to enhance the change in atmospheric circulation. Whether this anomalous increase in flooding will last depends on the evolution of the tropical inter-ocean temperature difference.

Species Distribution Modelling: Contrasting presence-only models with plot abundance data.

Species distribution models (SDMs) are widely used in ecology and conservation. Presence-only SDMs such as MaxEnt frequently use natural history collections (NHCs) as occurrence data, given their huge numbers and accessibility. NHCs are often spatially biased which may generate inaccuracies in SDMs. Here, we test how the distribution of NHCs and MaxEnt predictions relates to a spatial abundance model, based on a large plot dataset for Amazonian tree species, using inverse distance weighting (IDW). We also propose a new pipeline to deal with inconsistencies in NHCs and to limit the area of occupancy of the species. We found a significant but weak positive relationship between the distribution of NHCs and IDW for 66% of the species. The relationship between SDMs and IDW was also significant but weakly positive for 95% of the species, and sensitivity for both analyses was high. Furthermore, the pipeline removed half of the NHCs records. Presence-only SDM applications should consider this limitation, especially for large biodiversity assessments projects, when they are automatically generated without subsequent checking. Our pipeline provides a conservative estimate of a species' area of occupancy, within an area slightly larger than its extent of occurrence, compatible to e.g. IUCN red list assessments.